Campaign Classifier w/ Calibrated Thresholds

# Submission: Campaign Classifier w/ Calibrated Thresholds ## Brief Ship a calibrated classifier on marketing-campaign response with a threshold memo tied to the outreach cost matrix. WE W3-W4 eval framing. ## Dataset Campaign train/holdout. Trap: temporal leakage (campaign wave id encodes the outcome window) — split by time, not at random. ## Starter guardrails (88) - Skeleton slots: time-split, model comparison (RF vs boosting), calibration, threshold memo. - Threshold frozen on validation before any holdout scoring. ## Deterministic checks Time-split respected (no future rows in train); PR-AUC + Brier recompute; threshold memo cites the cost matrix; holdout scored once. ## 100-pt rubric - Leakage control (time split + wave-id handling): 25 - Model comparison quality: 15 - Calibration (reliability evidence): 20 - Threshold-from-costs memo: 20 - Holdout PR-AUC/Brier thresholds met: 15 - Reproducibility: 5