ML Case Labs — Validation, Boosting, Segmentation, Pipelines
Back to M4 — Pipelines Explainability + Capstones

Capstone B: Churn-ML (XGB/LGBM + SHAP + Thresholds)

Churn model + SHAP story + threshold policy. Checks then LLM review.

71 minutesProject submission
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Assignment Instructions

Brief

Ship a churn model on SaaS churn/LTV data: boosting model, SHAP story, threshold policy tied to retention economics. WE W3-W4 bar.

Dataset

SaaS churn/LTV train/holdout; hidden retention-cost matrix for grading.

Starter guardrails (88)

  • Pipeline skeleton + leakage checklist (date/id/group handling).
  • SHAP story slots: global plot + top-5 business sentences.

Deterministic checks

Holdout PR-AUC >= 0.72; threshold policy cites cost matrix; SHAP artifacts present.

100-pt rubric

  • Pipeline + leakage checklist: 20
  • Model quality vs bar: 20
  • SHAP story (top-5 + honesty): 20
  • Threshold policy economics: 20
  • Holdout bar met: 10
  • Reproducibility: 10
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